CBAM must remain an environmental instrument that rewards producers who cut emissions, wherever they are based. That only works if importers can use the actual emissions of the goods they buy instead of default values. The Business for CBAM Coalition sees the CBAM amendment now in trilogue as the last opportunity to get this right before quarterly certificate holdings start in 2027. The two problems are the quarterly holding obligation in Article 22 and the verification of actual emissions.

Quarterly holdings in 2027

From 2027, importers of CBAM goods must hold certificates at the end of each quarter under Article 22. The Regulation lets them base those holdings on actual emissions only by reference to the previous year’s declaration. For 2027 there is no such declaration. An importer whose supplier has measured its emissions and is preparing a verified report would still have to calculate its quarterly holdings on default values.

Default values are deliberately set high. For goods from a low-carbon supplier, a quarterly holding based on them can exceed the final CBAM cost by a factor of a hundred. The surplus is returned only after the annual declaration and the repurchase of excess certificates, around eighteen months after the end of the first quarter of 2027. Until then it is working capital tied up for reasons unrelated to the carbon content of the goods, and it pushes importers to buy far more certificates than they will need.

Actual emissions pending verification

Suppliers usually have their actual emissions data long before a verifier signs off, and the Regulation requires verified data only for the annual declaration. Quarterly holdings are an advance on that final obligation, so actual data not yet verified are sufficient to calculate them. Any difference is corrected when the declaration is submitted.

Missing verifiers

Using actual emissions in the annual declaration requires a report checked by an accredited verifier, and there are not enough of them. Verification bodies must be accredited under EU rules, and few are yet accredited and operating in the main exporting countries. A supplier ready to report may find no verifier available, or one that cannot take the work before the declaration deadline. When the verified report arrives late, the importer has to declare on default values. Enough accredited verification capacity has to be in place outside the EU before the first declaration falls due, with flexibility for importers where a supplier’s report is delayed for reasons beyond its control.

Carbon prices paid in third countries

The quarterly holding obligation should also account for reductions for a carbon price paid in a third country under Article 9. Where such a reduction will be taken into account for the final surrender obligation, disregarding it for the quarterly holding requirement unnecessarily increases the number of certificates to be held and the related working-capital burden. This should apply both to a carbon price effectively paid under Article 9(1) and to an applicable yearly default carbon price under Article 9(4).

Stable rules

Default values and the rules on precursors have changed during 2026, and the changes have applied to goods already imported. For some importers the CBAM cost per tonne of electric arc furnace steel has risen from zero to EUR 90 over the year, where suppliers could not obtain a verified report in time. Importers price CBAM into contracts with long-standing suppliers and cannot do so when the rules move after the goods have arrived. Default values and calculation rules need to be fixed in advance and should not apply retroactively.

The Council’s general approach

Article 22 was drafted without the first year of the definitive period in mind. The Council’s general approach is the right answer. It allows actual 2026 emissions, including data pending verification, to be used for the 2027 quarterly holdings, and it allows actual emissions where there are no prior-year data for a new CN code or country of origin. The Coalition asks the co-legislators to keep this wording in the final agreement.

About the Business for CBAM Coalition